ABSTRACT
The objective of this contribution is to derive an evaluation of the potential consequences of Poland's accession to the European Union (EU). The integration of Poland with advanced industrial countries in the Single European Market can be considered as the formative process for the Polish economy in the next two decades. The analysis is based on a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of a small open-economy Ramsey-type with intra-industry trade. The intertemporal feature of the Ramsey model allows an examination of the development of the economy. Moreover, it shows clearly that consumption has to be foregone today in order to enable investment which will lead to higher output in the future and higher overall welfare. The effects of Polish accession to the EU run two ways: EU economies will be affected too; however, since the present EU is already a large single market, the effects for the EU will be much smaller in relation to GDP than for Poland. Therefore, the following analysis will not attempt to assess the effects of an enlargement on the present member states, but will look at the effects for the joining country.
