In the past few years scholarly speculation on the economic future of Central and Eastern Europe has been widespread. Historical analogies have also made their appearance. In Germany, analogies between post-1945 experience, including discussion of the Marshall Plan, and the contemporary situation are common. The parallels seem clear: then, as now, a strong need for foreign exchange to buy imports, and an extreme shortage of capital. In both situations, estimates of the required transfers vary, but neither the potential value of the transfers for the receiver, nor the importance of appropriate institutional changes in the receiver countries are in doubt.1