ABSTRACT
In this chapter, we examine the accuracy of IMF projections associated with 175 IMF-supported programs approved in the period 1993-2001. For each program, the IMF staff prepares a projection of the country’s future performance. This projection is based upon the country’s initial situation and upon the predicted impact of reforms agreed upon in the context of the IMF program.1 We focus upon the projections of macroeconomic aggregates – specifically, on the ratios of fiscal surplus to GDP and of current-account surplus to GDP – during the years immediately following the approval of the IMF program. We will compare these projections to the actual data for the same years.
