ABSTRACT
The essence of this chapter is to describe the South African metropolitan and non-metropolitan urban areas as they exist at present, and then to attempt a set of scenarios of those areas in general from 1990 to the year 2000. The situation in a particular city will then be viewed against the scenarios. Assumptions of no change, some change, or a regressive change in the socio-political system of South Africa will be used as the bases for the three scenarios. In concluding the document, attention will turn briefly to a consideration of similar scenarios for the non-metropolitan areas. Fundamental to the considerations in the chapter are what will happen in South African urban places if residential apartheid remains, is re-enforced, or is lifted partially or completely. Given the status of extra-parliamentary organizations that have a strong presence in the Black communities it follows that unless their demands are met for an ending of the state of emergency, the removal of security forces from the townships, and the release of detainees, little if any real progress will be made towards resolving or normalizing the urbanization problems in the South African meteropolitan areas.
