ABSTRACT
When the crisis of a nondemocratic regime arises, and the transition to democracy starts unravelling, two main questions are at stake. The first is whether democracy will succeed, i.e. whether the instauration of democratic institutions is followed by consolidation of the new regime.1 The second is what type of democracy will be adopted and what will be the peculiar features of the new political system. This means on the one hand what type of institutional framework-parliamentary versus presidential, majoritarian versus consensus, etc. (Lijphart 1984)—will prevail; on the other hand what configuration of political actors will emerge during the transition and become relatively crystallized in the course of the first years. A major aspect is obviously which parties and what kind of party system will develop.
