ABSTRACT
A further value of calculating shot probabilities in addition to shots and goals is that accurate information is provided. For instance, when comparing South Korea’s and Brazil’s shots to goals (Table 5), South Korea created a similar number of shots but it misleadingly appeared that the team’s conversion of chances was not half as good as Brazil’s (6 compared to 14 goals were scored). However, the aggregate shot probability analysis would suggest that the cause of South Korea’s poor conversion of shots to goals was due to an inability to create as many good quality chances, rather than poor finishing ability (this was actually above the tournament average (119%) and close to Brazil’s (Table 5)). The implications for effective training time may therefore have been to improve the creation of shooting opportunities rather than finishing ability.
