ABSTRACT
The inherent complexity of socio-ecological systems presents many challenges and opportunities for governments, policy-makers, businesses and researchers the world over. Due particularly to increasing environmental degradation, depletion of natural resources and rapid increases in population and urbanisation, a large focus has been placed on working towards ‘sustainable development’ as outlined in documents such as Agenda 21. Although these documents provide good guidelines and objectives for sustainable development, set methods for adhering to these principles are rather more elusive. In light of this problem, this chapter will outline a framework known as the AUSTIME methodology: ‘Assessment of Urban Sustainability Through Integrated Modelling and Exploration’, for analysing, assessing and consequently forming policy and management strategies to improve the sustainability of urban systems. The methodology uses a ‘Sustainability Scale’ for indicators that are derived from percentiles of a population with resource use above a predetermined sustainable level or threshold. It has been coupled with a technique for modelling complex housing development systems using multi-agent-based simulation, which also allows for exploration of possible system futures through scenario analyses. The holistic framework can be used as a multi-criteria decision-making tool by policymakers, governments and planning authorities, as well as to discover potential risks and opportunities relating to achievement of sustainable urban development (SUD). The AUSTIME methodology is applied in the Christie Walk housing development of inner-city Adelaide, Australia. The results of this assessment demonstrate that the development compares favourably to the rest of the Adelaide metropolitan area. The case study also highlights, through behavioural scenario analyses, the importance of good infrastructure and design in reducing the impacts of human behaviour on housing development sustainability. It is envisaged that this new methodology for combining sustainability assessment with an integrated modelling technique will provide the basis for a solution to many of the challenges currently facing sustainability researchers, policy-makers and planning authorities of urban environments.
