ABSTRACT

This chapter shows the importance of futures analysis and horizon scanning. Horizon scanning is intimately related to the management of risk. There are both strategic tools that help us build resilience and mitigate problems. Horizon scanning requires imagination and the development of scenarios and storyboards is a very powerful way of envisioning a plausible future. The UK government has developed a toolkit for developing strategic futures. Projections are created by plotting the results of horizon-scanning exercises according to time and impact. Delphi should be used at the beginning of a project and involves interacting with a large group of external experts. Imagine what the world would be like if not only the cars but the entire traffic infrastructure, such as traffic lights, road signs, satellite navigation, and collision-warning systems were all connected and talking to each other without the intervention or even the knowledge of the driver.