ABSTRACT
In the early 1960s, the operations research and systems theorist C.W. Churchman lamented that ‘probably the most startling feature of twentieth century culture is the fact that we have developed such elaborate ways of doing things and at the same time have developed no way of justifying any of the things we do’ (Churchman 1961, cited in Shelley and Bryan 1964b: 8). Such are the rewards for finding a widely acceptable solution to this apparently modest requirement for justification, that it has exercised a dominating influence over many different disciplines, and spawned innumerable academic specialisms of its own. Technology assessment, decision analysis, policy analysis, systems analysis, operations research, life cycle analysis, multi-attribute utility theory, environmental impact assessment, comparative risk assessment, Bayesian statistics, portfolio theory, as well as the various forms of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis have all at different times (either individually or in combination) been proposed as aids to policy-making.1 All offer a host of heuristic techniques and other methods for the assessment of past decisions. All prescribe normative approaches to investment, technology and policy appraisal.
