ABSTRACT
The year 2002 witnessed the revival of a periodic debate surrounding Uzbekistan’s intentions towards reform. This is a significant but uncertain event because ten years of independence has in many ways brought limited change to the fundamental basis of Uzbekistan’s politics, economy and society. The government of President Islam Karimov has argued that this is deliberate, claiming that throughout the decade it has pursued a policy of gradualist reform which will encourage in the long term cautious but comprehensive reforms. However, an alternative analysis of this period exists, which suggests that that the ‘gradualist’ agenda is simply a pretence for the continuation of the status quo, avoids expedient reform and masks stagnation. In this analysis, the opportunities of the 1990s have been squandered, while a number of key challenges remain unresolved. This chapter supports this second perspective. It raises serious concerns about the direction and implications of Uzbekistan’s present policies and trends. While the main arguments and conclusions of the chapter are critical, it is evident that Uzbekistan has the potential for a prosperous and successful future within its grasp, to an extent that most of its neighbours do not have. Uzbekistan’s assets include significant human and economic capital and diversity; a well-educated, competent and sophisticated political elite; and since late 2001 increased international engagement and a reduced level of regional instability. These assets, if nurtured and harnessed, could result in a future that is advantageous to the republic, its citizens and the broader Central Asian region. The present international political climate, while problematic and in flux, does offer an opportunity for this to take place. It remains to be seen whether Uzbekistan is willing to seize this temporary opportunity.
