ABSTRACT
While playing golf, after you have mercifully reached the green, you have to decide where to target your putts. You might say that it is obvious—target the hole. But then the probability of being short is about 0.5. The conventional wisdom is to target beyond the hole, so that you won't be short. The pundits use expressions like, “never up never in.” But how far beyond the hole? Here the advice gets diverse and qualitative. Dave Pelz (1989) says 17” for all putts. My pro says, “for long putts target a two-foot cir cle around the hole and for short putts target about one foot beyond the hole.” The purpose of this research is to provide more specific quantitative advice. An approximate solution is to target a distance beyond the hole given by the formula: [Two feet]*[Probability of sinking the putt]. This solution applies to any putt. The dependence on putting ability and the difficulty of the putt is captured by the probability of sinking the putt. This tactic saves about 1 putt per round over conventional wisdom. The solution is derived from a Markov decision model of the putting process.
