ABSTRACT
This paper is concerned with the implications of cost and time escalation on the management of cash flow by the construction client. The problem inherent with modelling cash flow is outlined. The paper describes a shell-based expert system which seeks to model cash flow statistically and to produce a time-cost envelope based on information supplied by the user. Three estimates are produced for the cash flow profile, a ‘best guess’, an upper limit and a lower limit corresponding to a 95% confidence interval. The system will produce an answer with little or no information other than the project type, value and duration. Better estimates with more precision will be obtained if additional information is provided.
