ABSTRACT

Integrating historically separate and conceptually distinct research investments at the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Warfighter Readiness Research Division, we present a new technological capability for predicting how much knowledge and skill decay will occur for an individual, team, or squadron after an extended period of nonuse or practice, utilizing that information to more optimally schedule future training and rehearsal events. We align Mission Essential Competencies (MECs) research, which provide expert-driven identification of key enablers for operational success, with the Performance Evaluation Tracking System (PETS) line of research-a fine-resolution performance measurement tool used in high-complexity, time-pressured, mission-relevant domains-to provide a performance measurement foundation to adequately equip our third line of research-the predictive performance equation (PPE). The co-dependence among the MECs, PETS, and PPE research lines provide us with the methods, metrics, and models required to achieve our vision for optimally adaptive, individualized training and rehearsal experiences. This chapter seeks to showcase how the integration of these research foci will be used in the application of psychological science to improve the readiness of our forces.