ABSTRACT
In assessing Cuba's importance as a potential security threat to the US, Michael Kozak, the former senior US diplomat in Havana, stated in late 1998 that the primary concern of the US is one that did not exist twenty years ago: it is the issue of stability. US military planners would face truly daunting challenges if US or OAS forces were sent to restore order or, in the worst case possibility, to fight elements of the Cuban military engaged, say, in massive human rights violations. The Fidel Castro regime retains formidable strengths and there are no current signs that Castro's hold on power is threatened. The regime's formidable strengths tend, however, to camouflage tensions, insecurities, economic hardships, and social and class divisions that may exceed the problems that preceded previous mass sealifts. In Africa, Cuba can probably be expected to continue providing support for the regime in Angola where so much Cuban blood was shed in the 1970s and 1980s.
