ABSTRACT
Whither China? Perhaps no more consequential question can be asked about the world today. Every day and everywhere China figures prominently in global attention. Companies and banks weigh billions in investments; hedge fund managers assess and speculate on China’s downside risks; commodity traders and natural resource producers salivate over China’s energy appetite; intelligence agencies carefully track China’s growing global footprint; militaries monitor the People’s Liberation Army’s growing capabilities; diplomats grapple with a new assertiveness in China’s diplomatic posture; scholars try to understand the shifting dynamics and sources of China’s internal and external behaviour; while journalists track daily the latest changes in China’s economy, polity and society. Even in China there is a growth industry in publications about China’s future. 1 Everywhere one turns, China is in the news – gobbling up resources, soaking up investment, expanding its overseas profile, throwing its weight around its Asian neighbourhood, being the sought-after suitor in global governance diplomacy, sailing its navy into new waters, broadening its global cultural presence, and managing a mega-economy that is the engine of global growth.
