ABSTRACT
Introduction Unintended consequences can be fairly unpredictable.1 This is hardly surprising, given the contingencies and complexities of the social world. Sometimes, however, they are entirely predictable. What seems like unpredictability is often simply the result of a failure to see the wider picture. Take for example a carp in its pond. From the perspective of the brute animal, ending as Christmas dinner is neither an intended nor a predictable consequence of snapping at that luscious worm. But let us now assume that the carp was endowed with a rudimentary form of practical reason. If this was so, the animal in the carp would still be tempted to follow the stomach and bite. To the carp as a human-like reflective being, however, the result of getting caught would be predictable. A clever carp might therefore just nibble the worm and get away with it. The example of the reflective carp suggests that seeing the wider picture is a necessary, although by no means a sufficient precondition for getting a grip on unintended consequences. It will not help in every situation. But it may sometimes help against those undesirable consequences which can be avoided by anticipating effects that are predictable from a higher vantage point. Humans are sometimes, although by no means always, able to ponder the unintended but predictable consequences of their plans, and to adjust their actions accordingly.
