ABSTRACT
In this paper, a hierarchical risk-breakdown structure representation is used to develop a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. A common language for describing risks so as to achieve consistent quantification, including terms for quantifying likelihoods and impacts is presented. The relationships between risk factors, risks, and their consequences are represented on cause and effect diagrams. These diagrams and the concepts of fuzzy association and fuzzy composition are applied to identify relationships between risks sources and the consequences on project performance measures. A methodology for evaluating the risk exposures considering consequences in terms of time, cost, quality, and safety performance measures of a project based on fuzzy estimates of the risk components is presented.
