ABSTRACT
There exists between China and India a basic asymmetry of mutual threat perceptions. Indians tend to be deeply apprehensive of Chinese power and its potential ability to injure India, while Chinese tend not to perceive much of a threat from India. Chinese analysts focus on potential threats to China’s national security from the United States, Japan, or (in the past) Russia. India is not seen as constituting much of a threat, even though Chinese military planning includes scenarios involving war with India. For Indian analysts, however, China ranks just below Pakistan as a source of national security concern. Several factors underlie this asymmetry: the success of Beijing’s long-term effort to impose its will on Tibet and the corresponding failure of India’s efforts to modify China’s course in Tibet; the dramatic defeat of India by Chinese forces in the 1962 war; and the close strategic partnership between China and Pakistan, India’s nemesis. This asymmetry may be eroding; China is becoming a bit more apprehensive as Indian capabilities grow in the first decade of the twenty-first century. But the asymmetry still persists. For India, China constitutes its number one, long-term security challenge.1
