ABSTRACT
Will China’s rise be peaceful? This particular question is asked less often than one might think. Perhaps it is because people consider the question moot. The answer seems obvious to many people because they instinctively “know” with almost absolute certainty that the answer is “yes” or “no.” The “Yes Group” assumes that in the twenty-first century, great powers do not fight each other. The world has changed fundamentally since the two world wars of the last century with the spread of nuclear weapons and economic globalization.2 The national security calculus in capital cities from Beijing to Berlin and beyond has altered. The “No Group” assumes that there are immutable laws of international relations that even the remarkable transformations of the past fifty-odd years cannot alter. Great power rivalry, in their view, is inherently conflictual; when a new power rises, it triggers dynamics that spawn warfare.3
