ABSTRACT
Without the gift of prophecy, looking into the future is hazardous. The sun will rise tomorrow because it rose yesterday and the day before. Induction is reasonably reliable if one is predicting simple systems. But induction is notoriously problematic, both for logical and empirical reasons, especially if one is dealing with complex systems. If one predicts on the basis of past and present, one will be right much, even most of the time, but wrong at the times of critical innovation, the most important times of all, when the future is unlike the past.
