The sustainability of Russia’s energy power: Implications for the Russian economy

In early 2008, Russian economic policymakers were taking a rather complacent view of Russia’s future. In the “innovation” scenario espoused by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MERT), Russia’s economic growth over the period to 2020 would average more than 6 percent a year.2 Russian oil and gas production would continue to increase throughout that period – albeit slowly. Meanwhile, an earlier draft government document had assumed that world oil prices would stay in a high range, and everybody else’s output of hydrocarbons would “stabilize.”3