ABSTRACT

China’s emergence as a major regional power is transforming the economic, political, and security environment in Southeast Asia. At the same time, many observers consider ASEAN – the region’s main multilateral organization – to have been lacking cohesion and direction since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and the turbulent political situation in post-Suharto Indonesia. Although many Southeast Asian states appear to be recovering from the financial crisis, its effects are still evident, not least in political and social instability in key ASEAN states. Even those countries that appear to have recovered economically are beset by the interlocking challenges of globalization, political liberalization, and now transnational terrorism. Against this backdrop of rapid change and complex challenges, China’s decades-long economic growth and enhanced political influence pose major questions to the countries of Southeast Asia regarding the future of ASEAN, and to the United States for its role as the region’s security guarantor.