ABSTRACT
The emergence of China and India as new major global players is expected to transform the regional geopolitical landscape. Fuelling this rise is the combination of high economic growth, expanding military capabilities, and large populations. For example, the combined 2002 gross domestic products (GDP) of China, India and Japan are already half that of the United States in nominal terms.1 A study by the National Intelligence Council in the United States has forecasted that by 2015, the combined GDPs of China, India and Japan would surpass that of the United States and the European Union at US$19.8 trillion, US$14 trillion and US$11.6 trillion respectively in 1998 dollars.2 By 2050, Goldman Sachs has projected that the situation will become even more astounding when the combined GDPs of China, India and Japan will be slightly more than twice that of the United States and about four times that of France, Germany, Italy, Russia and the United Kingdom combined in 2003 dollars.3 In 2050, therefore, the largest economies in the world will be China, United States and India respectively, with Japan at a distant fourth. Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations – projected by the US Census Bureau to be 1.4 billion and almost 1.3 billion respectively by 2020 – their standard of living need not approach Western levels for these countries to become important economic powers.
