ABSTRACT
In the four decades since the pioneering work of Lewis Richardson, Nicholas Rashevsky, Quincy Wright and others, mathematical modeling has become well established as a technique in the scientific study of international relations (Zinnes 1976; Cioffi-Revilla 1979; Intriligator 1982). Most of this modeling effort, however, has focused on deterministic rather than stochastic (random) models, despite the fact that the international environment involves a number of important events such as drought and famine, coups and revolutions, deaths by disease and assassination, and other incidents which appear to be random with respect to the information used in the models. A smaller body of literature has focused on stochastic models which explicitly study the random component of international behavior, in many cases with impressive results. This paper will survey the existing applications of stochastic models, discuss the role of simulation in the study of stochastic modeling, and suggest some perspectives on stochastic modeling in both the scientific and the policy-oriented study of international relations.
