International Public Policy Analysis: Energy Crises and the Small State

Harold Guetzkow has for many years advocated the use of simulation for a variety of purposes, from theory-building to knowledge integration to training and teaching. ¹ One important use he envisaged was simulation for international public policy analysis. Decision-makers could use empirically-based simulations to help them evaluate the consequences of possible developments in the international arena and analyze the consequences of their own policies upon their country as well as upon other countries. Our contribution here is an example of that. Based on a scenario of a major energy crisis with political dimensions, we use a model to investigate the probable consequences of such a crisis on a small state, Switzerland. The model takes into account the plausible reactions of various decision-making units. Our model of Switzerland privileges security aspects in the wide sense of this word, including the military, government support by the population, agricultural production, demographic effects, the economy and of course impacts on energy use. Before discussing the results of the model, we will present in the next section the general features of our approach. This is then followed by a presentation of the Swiss model and of its energy sector.