ABSTRACT
Scenarios are a set of techniques designed to think about how the world might be in the future and are often commissioned with the stated goal of aiding decision-makers in envisioning, understanding, and planning for the future. Scenario techniques were first developed and deployed in national security and business communities, but over the past four decades they have become a ubiquitous part of environmental politics, policymaking, and social learning, from global to local governance scales. Despite the remarkable spread of scenarios in environmental governance, including their continuing use by states, international organizations, and firms, scenario analysis remains a relatively unexamined methodology. Scholars and practitioners disagree on the usefulness of information generated through scenarios, on how to characterize and interpret uncertainty in scenario outcomes, and on how to best structure scenario processes.
