ABSTRACT
This chapter analyzes the integration of policies in framing a water management problem in a hamlet in the Indian Himalayas. Policies provide strategic directions for actors to adopt a particular course of action. Bayesian Network (BN) is a modeling tool that quantifies the relationship among variables, even if the relationships involve uncertainty, unpredictability or imprecision. A BN comprises three elements: firstly, a set of variables that represent the factors relevant to a particular environmental system or problem; secondly, the links among these variables; and finally, the conditional probability values that are used to calculate the state of the variables. A water management problem exists when there is a discrepancy between: technically achievable and desired social goals; and actual outcomes that arise from current institutional arrangements. The Rajana watershed falls under the jurisdiction of Rajana village in the Sirmaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
