ABSTRACT
This chapter describes the methodologies to calculate the value of the Human Development Index (HDI) using the old (before 2010) and new (after 2010) methods along with their criticism, advantages and significance. The new methodology is found to be superior compared to the old methodology as far as concern for determination of goalposts and capturing knowledge, and uses of an appropriate mean, i.e. geometric mean to calculate value of HDI. Based on the results of a deterministic regression model of HDI for India, it revealed that, relatively, Education Index (EI) contributes more in enhancing the value of India’s HDI compared to Health Index (HI) and Income Index (II), using data from 1990 to 2014. To forecast the value of India’s HDI, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) has been applied using data from 1980 to 2018. The ARIMA (0,1,0) model predicts the value of HDI from 1980 to 2018 with more than 99% accuracy. To determine the year in which India will enter into High Human Development Index (HHDI) and Very High Human Development Index (VHHDI), out sample forecasting has been done using the suggested ARIMA (0,1,0) model. It was found that India’s value of HDI will be greater than 0.8 by 2039 and greater than 0.9 by 2053. Hence, India will have HHDI by 2039 and VHHDI by 2053.
