American Perceptions of Western Goals and Constraints in Western Policy Toward the Soviet Union: How Much Worst Case Thinking?

This chapter examines US leadership perceptions of the long-term developments, goals and constraints effective in the West, including Soviet views of the self-perceptions of the USA and their effects on policy. It focuses on three questions: the mix of optimism and pessimism about trends in the West that has characterized the thinking of American presidents and their advisers; the effect that pessimism, to the extent that it has been present, has had on policy; and the relationship between the long and short-term aspects of both perceptions and policy. While American leaders were fairly relaxed about the Soviet military threat, they became increasingly preoccupied with the problem of economic reconstruction in Europe and particularly the danger inherent in the continuing division and occupation of Germany. The John F. Kennedy administration marked a decisive break in American policy toward the Soviet Union.