ABSTRACT

Iraq in Transition is an attempt to present insights into Iraq's response—in political, economic, and foreign policy terms—to the trauma of its ongoing war with Iran. Its main justification is neither the war nor the apparent evolution in Iraq's political and economic outlook. After years of suspense over the war's potential impact on oil traffic, the tanker war in the Gulf began in earnest in March 1984. January 1985 was the first month in which Iran's oil output dropped dramatically, to 1.4 million b/d, apparently as a result of intensive Iraqi bombing throughout the month of December. Iran's response was to begin shuttling oil on its own or Iranian-chartered tankers from Kharg to Sirri Island, an off-loading point lower in the Gulf, thus reducing the exposure of commercial tankers in the northern Gulf war zone. In comparison with the exchange of attacks on oil targets, the ground war between Iran and Iraq has been far more bloody and less creative.