ABSTRACT
The rise in energy prices in the 1970s resulted in reductions in energy demand that have surprised many in the analytical community. The energy models developed by the DOE and others in response to the energy crises of the 1970s largely focused on energy supply. Until the late 1970s, little data were available about energy demand. As a result, the models used for projecting demand were simple and aggregate; they proved incapable of explaining the priceinduced declines in demand. Recently, however, a range of analytical tools and data bases have been constructed to evaluate structural and behavioral changes in energy use by each end-use sector— residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation. In 1977 the principals at Carnegie Mellon University's Energy Productivity Center (who later formed AES) pioneered a new approach to describing the behavior of consumer decisions concerning the choice of end-use equipment and fuel choice, called least-cost analysis. This paper describes projections of industrial energy and electricity demand derived from using a disaggregated model of industrial energy demand constructed according to the least-cost approach.
