Forecasting Commercial Electricity Consumption at the Energy Information Administration

The Commercial Sector Energy Model (CSEM) was developed under contract by Brookhaven National Laboratory for the Office of Energy Markets and End Use, the EIA. The model was developed in the fall of 1982 based primarily on the Nonresidential Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (NBECS) of the EIA. The CSEM is used either as the commercial module of the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) or as an independent commercial sector energy demand model. The CSEM was used most recently to produce commercial sector energy projections for AEO-82. The CSEM produces detailed forecasts for the three primary fuels used by the commercial sector—electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil.