ABSTRACT
Threat analysis comprises the foundation of any national security policy. As arms control enters the military considerations of Middle Eastern countries, national arms control agendas must also be established on the basis of an evaluation of regional threats. Unlike the case of the US, the existential threat to Israel did not simply vanish in 1992, but it did lose its specificity. The Palestinian uprising, or intifada, that began in December 1987 has in many ways distorted the way threats to Israeli security have been appreciated. During 1992-1993, there was a tendency in the US as well as in Israel to emphasize the growing threat of Iran, particularly due to its support for terrorism as well as its investment in developing ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. The traditional asymmetries between Israel and the Arab states are particularly important to recall in an era wherein the threats to Israel have lost their short term specificity.
