ABSTRACT

Demographic data can be used to construct indicators of significant social phenomena, such as fertility and mortality rates, literacy rates, proportions of female-headed households. Trends derived from the analysis of demographic data can be used to forecast future conditions under varying assumptions derived from different development scenarios. Demographic analysis is particularly useful for project assessment within the first perspective. In this approach, development projects may be treated as problems in human ecology. The most commonly considered source of demographic data is the national census. Project planners generally try to identify a "target" or "beneficiary" population. The term "target population" usually describes those people who are expected to be directly affected by the project or whose behavior is expected to change in some way as a result of the project. Demographic analysis is one of several methodological tools available to assist in the prediction and evaluation of social impacts associated with development projects.