ABSTRACT

In this paper we identify relevant questions and issues concerning arms races and arms control in the Middle East. We identify for the relevant parties their defense and arms control objectives, their interactions in terms of conflict and cooperation, other factors affecting arms races and arms control in the region, the prospects for arms control, and future scenarios for the region. Our major conclusions are that: (1) There is evidence for both an arms race and arms control in the region. (2) The application of superpower arms race and arms control concepts pertaining to the United States and the Soviet Union is inappropriate or even dangerous in this particular regional context. (3) A more appropriate way of analyzing arms races and arms control in the region is with a multilateral and multidimensional approach which, in fact, may be in the future more and more relevant to the superpower context as well. (4) There are possibilities for further arms control initiatives of various types–unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral – in the region that could be useful steps toward an overall arms equilibrium, but, for the foreseeable future, such an equilibrium will continue to be at relatively high levels of armaments. (5) Probably the most reasonable and desirable future arms control scenario would include Israeli determination of a specific plan for the future of the West Bank and Gaza Strip and U.S. economic cooperation and political dynamism in the region.