ABSTRACT
This chapter proposes to define proliferation in terms of nuclear capabilities, delineating various levels of nuclear proliferation. Most references to nuclear proliferation or to a country's going nuclear have in mind the acquisition of a nuclear explosive device by a country or group without such a device. The scope and dynamics of possible future proliferation will be determined by changing patterns of interaction between the pressures for and constraints upon proliferation. The emergence of an antiproliferation crackdown environment would possibly have an equally important influence upon the scope and pace of proliferation. Its critical feature would be a multifaceted reinforcement of inter-national constraints upon proliferation. Analysis of the scope and dynamics of future proliferation is a prerequisite both for assessment of the dangers of a proliferated world and for efforts to design policies to retard proliferation and to manage the problems of living in a more proliferated world.
