ABSTRACT
This chapter describes a simplified daily soil moisture budget model, which considers the major soil and plant processes involving water. The models estimates are based on Penman’s potential evapotranspiration formula, using values from Brazilian geographical factors, such as latitude, altitude, and minimum distance from the Atlantic Ocean. The chapter shows that with the available historical series of meteorological and yield data in Brazil, it is quite possible to develop crop/yield/weather models that can be used to estimate production both in bad and good years to make timely and appropriate agricultural management and planning decisions. All crop/weather models developed can be used to forecast crop yields 60 days before harvest time, as well as yield probability projections. The chapter considers other necessary input data to the model are daily rainfall, monthly normal phenological crop events, and values of maximum available soil moisture capacity for the crop rotation and region.
