ABSTRACT
Forecasting facilitates the development of preemptive strategies which may divert or rechannel the debilitating effects of change. The problems which plague energy forecasting generally become particularly acute when solar energy is being considered. For a forecast of solar energy to be of much use as a policy instrument it cannot very well follow traditional methodological lines. Though solar energy is an ancient energy source, it is largely an outcast in its most reincarnation. If a radically different picture of the future were to emerge through the consideration of conservation and alternative energy technologies, it would be unlikely to have much impact upon decision-makers. Given the non-market nature of solar energy, an assessment of solar potential would begin by exploring those factors associated with its more general social utility. The basic reason for the diverse results is that the studies assign different values to a number of critical factors or assumptions affecting solar development.
