ABSTRACT

This chapter focuses on long-term planning under uncertainty as a practical context within which transition modelling could be used. It explains how models could contribute to processes of long-term planning, to inform policy decisions and to facilitate stakeholder engagement. The chapter conceptualises transition models as normative and explorative scenario tools. The normative aspect helps with envisioning a desired future and the pathways to realisation, while the explorative aspect helps with testing the robustness of those pathways against deeply uncertain futures.