ABSTRACT
In the aftermath of the occupation of Iraq and collapse of Saddam’s regime in March 2003, global media made diverse assessments about the consequences of this event for Iran. In the eyes of Iranians, a next-door enemy had disappeared but a greater danger had shown up by the presence of the US Army on Iraqi–Iranian borders.
Besides the Shi‘ite majority in the Iraqi population and its affinity with predominant Iranian Shi‘ites, there were other factors that have consolidated Iran’s influence in Iraq. The close links of Iranian leaders with certain Iraqi politicians and organisations were not free of domestic and external objections. There were many signs of resentment over Iran’s meddling in the internal affairs of Iraq, particularly among the Sunni and Kurdish circles. Furthermore, the predominantly Sunni-populated countries of the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, are critics of Iran’s ideological and material domination in Iraq.
Along with some enormous advantages that the change of regime created for Iran, some disadvantages for Iran have also been observed in Iraq, such as the revival of the Shi‘ite spiritual headquarters and promotion of seminaries (hawza) and prominence of marja’ iyah in Najaf, which has brought the legitimacy of state-related Iranian clergy and the supremacy of religious hierarchy in Qom into question. Iran is also concerned over border disputes, intrusion of Iranian Kurdish insurgents who are stationed in Iraq, the US–Iraqi Strategic Framework Agreement, escalation of ethnic tensions in vicinity of its territory, resurgence of Iraq’s reintegration with the Arab world, and its collaboration with Iran’s regional rivals. Furthermore, the implication of Iran in the activities of Shi‘ite militia organisations in Iraq is a cause of concern and may originate mutual antagonism in the future.
