ABSTRACT
Iran has been at the center of the political debate on both the Gulf region and the transatlantic relations for almost two decades. After the Trump administration withdrew from the Viennese nuclear agreement in May 2018 (JCPOA) that was concluded between the five permanent members of the UN-Security Council (US, China, Russia, UK and France) and Germany, on one hand, and Iran, on the other, the Gulf region and transatlantic relations have been in a new situation. The JCPOA is the most comprehensive arms control agreement that exists. The real argument of the US security establishment against Iran appears not to be the nuclear deal but hegemonic competition between the US and Iran in the region, however. For the EU, preserving the nuclear deal with Iran is a matter of respecting international agreements and a matter of international security.
The article maps out three future scenarios: all parties, except the US, stay in the deal; Iran has the feeling that it does not benefit from the agreement anymore and restarts its nuclear program; and the Vienna agreement survives until the dynamics change. The article ends with some policy recommendations on arms control agreements that would include all parties in the region and on limitations of hegemonic aspirations.
