ABSTRACT
The new Golden Age for coal which was heralded by professional forecasters, industry leaders, and government officials in the late 1970's and early 1980's has come—and gone. It is illuminating to briefly look back at why all the forecasts and projections went wrong. The Arab oil embargo of late 1973 and early 1974, which artificially constricted world oil supplies and quadrupled prices, set off a frantic search for substitute energy supplies in both industrialized and developing countries. The stockpiling of coal which occurred in 1981 greatly exceeded what was needed for immediate short-term consumption. Steam coal supply will continue to exceed demand throughout the 1980's and 1990's. Metallurgical coal exports will continue to exceed steam coal exports from the United States through the remainder of this century. Although recent imports have come from Australia, Canada, Poland, South Africa and Colombia, only the latter is a serious threat.
