ABSTRACT
Uncertainty in long-term load forecasting can be broken into uncertainty about two apparently simple questions: how fast the economy will grow, and how fast demand for electricity will grow relative to total economic activity. The observed decrease in energy intensity of output is simply a response to the changes in relative prices of energy. Electricity intensity has not fallen as much as energy intensity because of its lower rate of price increase. Autonomous conservation does not exist. The only relevant questions for conservation are whether relative electricity prices will change, and how much of the adjustment to previous price changes is already done. A plot of the observed income elasticity of electricity sales would show extreme volatility, but not much trend, and an average value above one. Ontario Hydro's forecasts that electricity sales will grow more slowly than provincial economy over the next twenty years. Economic growth is forecast to average 2.8 percent, with electricity demand growth at 2.5 percent.
