ABSTRACT
The major results of the Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Energy Program were based on comprehensive quantitative projections, or "scenarios", of the world's energy. This chapter focuses on the analysis behind these scenarios, which were generated from a set of detailed computer models. It also focuses on methodology, and although there are policy implications, it neither endorses nor discourages any particular energy policy. More importantly, despite claims of robustness, the scenarios are unstable with respect to minor variations in key input data. This was recognized in early sensitivity work that was discontinued and is not cited in later documentation. The IIASA Energy Program began in the wake of the 1973 oil embargo and lasted seven years, involving more than 225 person-years of effort and a total research budget exceeding $6.5 million. The stated purpose of the IIASA study was "to understand the factual basis of the energy problem, that is, to identify facts and conditions for any energy policy".
