ABSTRACT
This chapter aims to speculate about Egypt's prospects during the 1980s in the light of specific political circumstances that may arise within Egypt itself and in the Arab world. The development of relations with Israel would slow down, without actually being rolled back; the other Arab states would be assured that Egypt planned quietly to keep relations with Israel at a bare minimum level compatible with treaty obligations. For Egypt, with the largest population, industrial base and military forces in the Arab world, the Lebanese role is incompatible with her national stature and strategic interests. Relations with the United States would inevitably cool off to some extent, with the Egyptian side seeking to avoid major provocations that might lead Washington to stop the aid program. The emphasis in the Maoist model on rural development and decentralization flies in the face of certain established Egyptian political and cultural values.
