ABSTRACT
Throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, thoughtful observers have warned of the ultimate exhaustion of the materials and energy resources upon which society is based. This chapter looks at the implications of materials and resource depletion for international security. In their path-breaking book, Scarcity and Growth, H. J. Barnett and C. Morse tested the process of depletion of replacement deposits by positing that if it were occurring, the real costs or real price of materials should be rising through time. Depletion of materials and energy resources during the next 10 years will not significantly affect the flows of trade and the international security aspects of materials and energy availability to the United States. The major presidential commissions that have reported on materials problems, including the draft report of the recent presidential study, all have called for increased attention to the data and analytic information available to policymakers in both the government and the private sector.
