ABSTRACT

The divergent economic effects of alternative combinations of rates of population growth projected for different regions have obvious implications with reference to the concept of optimal population and the related concept of an optimal rate of population growth. In formulating different scenarios as a basis for computation of alternative patterns of future economic growth of the developing and the developed countries, the possibility of investigating the effects of alternative assumptions concerning the prospective population trends was explored only to a very limited extent. Using 1970 as the base year and projecting through 1980 and 1990 to the year 2000, the global model displays various possible interrelationships between environmental and other economic policies. In worldwide terms, an 11.1 percent increase in the total population figure would be accompanied by a modest 1.3 percent rise in the global gross domestic product and, consequently, a substantial 8.9 percent reduction in the average global per capita income.