ABSTRACT
This chapter aims to sketch the likely development of Soviet economic relations with the World Economy over the decade 1976–1985, the period of the Tenth and Eleventh Five-Year plans. Trade between the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe has been disaggregated into four commodity groups: machinery, raw materials, food, other consumer goods. In the past, Soviet exports of fuel and materials to the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) were a function of net material product in Eastern Europe and also determined a smaller flow of material imports from the CMEA. During the construction of the Soviet Econometric Model a new methodology was developed for evaluating the quantitative impact of imported machinery on Soviet industrial production; to a certain extent, this technique provides a measure of the gains from technology transfer. The projections presented were computed using a 1977 version of SOVMOD III, the third generation SRI-WEFA Soviet Econometric Model.
