ABSTRACT
While the Reagan years did not revolutionize health policy for the elderly, significant structural trends were initiated and/or reinforced. These trends could have long-lasting consequences for the elderly. As the number of elderly grows dramatically over the next fifty years, the federal health policy for the aged will reflect the heritage of New Federalism, fiscal crisis and austerity, and deregulation. Two factors cause policymakers to worry about the future of health policy for the elderly: the growing number of the elderly and their health status. It is possible to reliably estimate the health care demands of the elderly at the turn of the century because of two factors. All of those who will be elderly have already been born, and the health of the elderly as a group changes gradually. The biomedical model is oriented toward treating individuals who have short-term conditions that can be fully reversed.
