ABSTRACT
Many evaluations of the impact of mega-events are overestimated and do not consider substitution effects. Based on a survey proposed in international practice, we isolate the additional component from visitor expenditures, and evaluate more realistically the impact of a given event: Expo 2015 in Milan. Results show that almost all visits from Italians are substitutive, while only half of foreigners’ visits are additional for the country. Expenditure generated by Expo was estimated to be up to 0.9 billion euros, or a slightly larger number if more optimistic assumptions are formulated. This can activate up to one billion euros of added value, compared with more than 4 billion euros estimated in the ex-ante studies. The impact on Lombardy is larger than elsewhere. Expo 2015 visitors’ expenditures have sizeable benefit for Italy, but it is way below ex-ante expectations and came at the cost of reduced economic activity in other regions of Italy.
